Election eve: the Wades "double down."

Now it's a sporting game. Thanks to the Wade father-son team, tomorrow's local elections in Senegal take on a transcendent importance. After spending the last two weeks on separate electioneering tours of the county, President Abdoulaye Wade and son, Karim, have turned the election into a referendum for their party, their coalition and their own political futures. They have bet, double-down, on a popular endorsement to obtain a legitimate mandate.

President Wade's full ahead infrastructure agenda is given a populist gestalt by his son's "Concrete Generation" movement. They have met their political opponents head-on during the last weeks. The president toured the high road, focused on economic issues. Karim hit the ground with "mobilizations" of the Génération du Concret, clad in blue jeans and baseball cap, pushing support for the SOPI coalition forged by the Wades' PDS party.

The stops on their journeys met with a tough, organized opposition, deriding the perceived autocratic tendancies of the Wades. The president was greeted at times by rocks and jeers from those in opposition red armbands, and chased out of some parts of the country according to reports.

Various media have called the election crutial for the political future of Karim Wade, seen as promoted to succeed his father.

Controversy regarding the legitimacy of the elections was heightened by the disqualifation of SOPI's slate in the Djiorbel area and subsequent court challenges to that process. Opponents will be keenly on the lookout for election fraud, having sat out the last local election because of its perception.

Tourism prospects dim near term.

Senegal's tourist industry is suffering even as West Africa has worked so hard to build its visitor industry, according to a pessimistic BBC World News report.

According to BBC, bad press in French newspapers over a reported increase in child prostitution at the country's most popular beach resort, the Petit Cote, has not helped but the real hammer blow has been the global recession.

Luxury holidays are one of the first things cut when money is tight and, though the decline this year has been gentle, the figures for next year look dire.

Salif Badiane is the executive director of Africa Connection Tours says: "At this time of the year we should have had orders for 30 to 35 percent of our turnover. Now we are under 5 percent of our turnover and that's why we are so concerned."

Looking at the positive, however, we would note that the hard work of building service infrastructure--everything from good roads to reliable internet-- and buffing up the outstanding natural attractions of Senegal will create long-term opportunities, as the economy revives and news scandals fade...

How bad is it? Senegal's building blues.

The world financial crunch hit Senegal's building industry hard in January. Senegal's Directorate of Forecasting and Economic Studies (Dpee), in its latest monthly economic note reveals that "the level of buildings and public works, half of the companies interviewed leaders discussed the issue of collection of receivables that still weighed on their activities in January 2009. The same source believes that acute financing difficulties are felt by 33.3 percent of respondents. The Dpee also reveals that 16.7 percent of managers say the business environment has deteriorated due to the lengthening of procedures for public procurement and the lack of markets, resulting in a decrease of profitability.

For services, the Dpee notes that the business environment remains a major concern for 46.2 percent of business leaders surveyed. According to them, the same source continues, "the length of procedures for procurement and land issues have been detrimental to businesses."

The survey concludes that many Senegalese business owners are being hit by cash flow problems that would continue through February.

The Economist's mixed view of today's Senegal

A recent Economist article gives a snapshot of Senegal's political scene with a focus on President Wade... Objectively Senegal is doing pretty good, with credit going to President Wade for positive economic signs such as the Corniche expressway from the airport to downtown and decent communications infrastructure, according to the February 26 article, datelined Dakar without byline.

But the article points to troubling signs from Senegal's political society, much of which it also attributes to the President. Last year's food riots (see our previous posts), and allegations of corruption have generated "rage and frustration" among many Senegalese, according to the article.

The Economist's short article injects some heavy hyperbole: the teaser cites "authoritarian" President Wade and the article's subhead states ominously that: "President Wade will ignore domestic discontent at his peril." This should hardly be news to any politician.

And the article's "taxi-driver" level of analysis misses relevant developments: fortuitous rains and consequent good harvests combined with easing import costs (lower fuel costs) and pending IMF aid will help the country's economic discontent.

Better to sort out the political grumbling after the local elections on March 22. Institutional politics take a backseat in Senegal where personal political ties are more pronounced. That level of political dynamic is beyond the grasp of most observers (including us). And local political elections, as these upcoming, are even more parochial. The losers and disaffected factions from the local elections will make their views known sooner or later. It will take a while to sort out. We intend to be there to get a first hand sense...

Garbage strike hits Dakar

Garbage workers--les ramasseurs d'ordure--in Dakar are on strike, and according to one news source, facing arrests. The workers, employed by the community association of CADAKAR and the French multinational firm Viola, want more pay and better health conditions. Apparently tuberculosis is widespread among the workers and the vaccinations that they receive have not been effective... We noted last year that the demise of the large-scale AMA waste management contract may have been doomed by labor unrest. Since the Italian AMA left town, the French Viola has moved in, at least to the central parts of Dakar. Now apparently it is also running into trouble... Do the garbage workers have a valid grievance? We're told that pay runs only around a couple (U.S.) dollars a day. Of course,the work is hard around the world, good pay or bad... Our sources also tell us that the Dakar labor force is subject to manipulation by political power brokers. The current strike is organized by Le Front unitaire des syndicats du nettoiement. They promise that garbage will pile in the streets if their demands are not met. They want to meet with President Wade to voice their complaints... Senegal's garbage problems have many causes...

Senegal economy dropped big in 2008; better this year?

The growth of gross domestic product (GDP) of Senegal in 2008 registered a sharp drop, from 4.7 percent in 2007 to only 2.5 percent, according to the Senegal representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Alex Segura. (Who recently had his Dakar apartment burlarized, by the way.)

"Between 1995 and 2005, Senegal has had a growth rate around 5 percent. In 2007 it was 4.7 percent," Segura told Radio France Internationale (RFI).

But "the effect of domestic debt on economic activity was very negative and led to a slowdown in activity in 2008 with a growth rate estimated at 2.5 percent, which is a sharp drop," he said. In 2006, the GDP of Senegal had already been a bad year with 2.4 percent.

In 2008, the secondary sector was severely affected, providers of the state have not been paid on time. Many companies were forced to reduce their activities," he added. According to Segura, the growth of non-agricultural GDP was only 1.5 percent in 2008.

For 2009, the IMF's estimated growth for Senegal is 4 percent.

Regarding the heavy domestic debt, "a third had been paid a week ago. The stock of 225 billion CFA francs (342 million) registered with the authorities, there were still around 150 billion CFA francs," Segura said.

"The Minister of Finance (Abdoulaye Diop) is working to find resources to pay the rest. In the coming weeks, if not all, much will be paid," said the IMF representative.

Good credit means paying your debts. The slow pay policy of Senegal's central government could continue to drag down the economy.

China and Senegal: sweethearts hook up

They've known each other for about three years. "Mais c’est le grand amour" between China and Senegal. Thus on Saint Valentine's Day it is appropriate that the president of the Republic of China, Hu Jintao, rendezvoused with Abdoulaye Wade, the president of Senegal. According to the L'Observateur the visit marked the growing relationship between the two since Senegal recognized communist China only three years ago. China suspended diplomatic relations with Senegal in 1996 when Senegal had the audacity to formally recognize the democratic Chinese government of Taiwan. Then in 2005, under Wade, Senegal switched to recognizing the communist regime over the democratic, furthering the communists' efforts to freeze the democratic Chinese out of international, and United Nations, recognition... Now the relationship has flowered into "a great love" according to the news reports of Hu's Valentine's Day visit to Dakar... That great love was testified according to sources from both countries by the extensive couplings expected in areas such as the development of Senegal's airlines and other transportation systems, as well as exploitation of hard-to-develop oil reserves in Casamance... The Chinese are already involved in major infrastructure projects in Senegal, particularly in Touba, as we have posted here often. The oil exploitation move is interesting, but not surprising considering China's clear program of developing its own oil sources... Will this "great love" last? One wonders, considering the cultural differences of the pair, especially the religious. Senegal is a land of great faith and the Muslim morality of its people is one of its greatest strengths. China is atheist. One wonders if the relationship is really just one of convenience, or even meretricious...